What forecasts has the IMF made regarding the evolution of Moldova’s economy after the success of the pro-EU referendum?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Moldova’s economy will grow by 2.6% this year, reaffirming its earlier projection from April 2024, following the success of the pro-EU referendum.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, Moldova’s economic growth will be below the average of the emerging and developing Europe region, which is estimated at 3.2%. This region includes 15 countries, such as Russia, Turkey, and EU member states like Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria.

Forecasts for 2025

It is projected that Moldova’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.7% in 2025, lower than the 4.8% estimate made in April.

For 2026, a 5% economic growth is anticipated. Last year, the country’s economy posted a modest 0.7% increase.

Consumer price inflation in Moldova is expected to rise by 5% this year, slowing down from the 13.4% increase recorded in 2023.

In 2025 and 2026, average consumer price inflation is projected to remain steady at 5%. Moldova’s current account deficit is forecast to decrease to 11.2% of GDP in 2024, down from 11.9% in 2023. Next year, the current account gap is expected to narrow further, reaching 10.7% of GDP.

Long-term global prospects remain more uncertain

The IMF predicts that global economic growth will be 3.2% this year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to 2023, with a reduction to 3.1% per year by the end of the 2020s, the lowest level in decades.

Weaker economic prospects for China have affected medium-term projections, as have worsening outlooks in Latin America and Europe. Structural negative factors, such as low productivity and aging populations, also constrain growth potential.

“The anticipated slowdowns in the largest emerging and developing economies imply a longer path to closing income gaps between poor and wealthy countries. Stagnant growth at low levels could also exacerbate income inequality within economies,” the IMF warned.