Port Blockades Reduce Ukraine’s Grain Exports to 30% of the Estimated Requirement

Ukraine exports only 30% of its grain export needs amid port blockade

Ukraine exported approximately 590,000 tonnes of grain between August 1 and 12, a volume representing only around 30% of its estimated export needs. According to Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture and Food Taras Vysotskyi, the situation is mainly caused by the blockade of the ports in the Greater Odesa area – Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi – and restricted access for Ukrainian agricultural products to international markets.

Alternative routes could increase exports to 50%

Under the current circumstances, the use of alternative logistics routes could allow Ukraine to increase its export volumes to approximately 50% of the estimated requirement. However, this would represent the maximum level as long as the ports in the Greater Odesa area remain blocked.

At present, approximately 45% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports are transported by rail, another 45% through Danube routes, and around 10% by road.

The Republic of Moldova, an important part of the logistics routes

One of the main alternatives is the railway route through the Republic of Moldova, whose current capacity is estimated at 500,000–800,000 tonnes. At the same time, Danube transport is affected by low water levels, preventing the routes from operating at full capacity.

In the medium term, the capacity of the Danube routes could increase to 1.5 million tonnes per month, contributing to higher volumes of grain being transported to international markets.

Ukraine seeks support for logistics costs

To maintain export flows, the authorities in Kyiv are asking international partners to provide partial compensation for the additional costs generated by the use of alternative logistics routes. The measure is considered necessary both to support Ukraine’s agricultural sector and to safeguard international food security.

Growing pressure on grain storage capacity

The reduction in exports is also creating a major challenge regarding the storage of new crops. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates that in November, during the peak of the corn harvest, the volume harvested could reach 8–11 million tonnes, putting additional pressure on storage infrastructure.

International funding for grain storage

To prevent a shortage of storage capacity, Ukraine is already receiving international support. International partners have confirmed approximately $10 million for temporary storage solutions, funding that could enable the creation of capacity for approximately 2–2.5 million tonnes.

At the same time, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture is in final negotiations with the World Bank to secure an additional $25 million. The funding could help create additional storage capacity for more than 6 million tonnes of grain.

Kyiv requests a €220 million EU grant

In addition to support for logistics and storage, Ukraine has requested a €220 million grant from the European Union to support the agricultural sector.

The funds would not be provided directly to farmers, but would instead be used for interest rate compensation and partial coverage of banking risks under preferential lending programs, including through the expansion of the “5-7-9%” program.

According to the proposal, the European grant could facilitate access to bank loans of up to €4 billion for the agricultural sector, at an interest rate of no more than 10% per year.

Measures to safeguard food security

Ukrainian authorities believe that international funding for transport, storage and agricultural financing infrastructure could help maintain agricultural exports and reduce pressure on international markets. At the same time, the development of alternative transport routes and the expansion of storage capacity are essential for managing the harvest amid the blockade of Ukraine’s main export ports.