Putin’s Adviser Warns: Ukraine Could Lose Its Western Territories. Northern Bukovina in Moscow’s Scenario

Putin’s Adviser Outlines a Scenario Regarding Ukraine’s Western Territories

Anton Kobiakov, adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin and executive secretary of the Eastern Economic Forum, has outlined a scenario involving a possible future change to Ukraine’s borders. According to him, the country could lose territories in the west that, before the Second World War, were part of Romania, Hungary and Poland.

Among the regions mentioned is Transcarpathia. Kobiakov stated that “sooner or later, Ukraine will lose its western territories”, reiterating an idea previously expressed by Vladimir Putin.

Moscow’s Discourse on a Possible Redrawing of Borders

The Russian official described western Ukraine as a “den of evil” and accused Kyiv of representing the “vanguard of European fascism”. The statements form part of Moscow’s political rhetoric regarding the war in Ukraine and do not constitute an international agreement or a decision concerning changes to Ukraine’s current borders.

Transcarpathia, Northern Bukovina and Galicia in Russian Scenarios

In scenarios presented over time by Russian officials, Ukraine’s western regions are associated with neighboring states based on historical affiliations. Thus, Transcarpathia is associated with Hungary, Galicia with Poland, while Northern Bukovina, including the Chernivtsi area, is associated with Romania.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has previously presented, among other things, a hypothetical map depicting a possible division of Ukrainian territory among neighboring states.

Political Statements, Not an Agreement on the Transfer of Territories

It is important to distinguish these scenarios from the current international legal situation. Statements by Russian officials represent political positions and hypotheses, and there is no international agreement under which these territories would be transferred to Romania, Hungary or Poland.

Transcarpathia has a complex administrative history. The region was under the authority of the Kingdom of Hungary for centuries, and following the dissolution of Austria-Hungary, it went through several forms of administration, subsequently becoming part of Czechoslovakia and, after the Second World War, Soviet Ukraine. Today, Transcarpathia is part of Ukraine.

Northern Bukovina, Another Territory Invoked in Historical Discourse

Northern Bukovina also has a complex history. Romania administered the region after 1918, before it was occupied and annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940.

These historical references are used in political discourse seeking to support scenarios involving a possible change to Ukraine’s borders.

Moscow’s Territorial Discourse Extends to Western Ukraine

Kobiakov’s statement is notable because it extends Moscow’s territorial discourse beyond the regions of eastern Ukraine claimed by Russia. Statements by some Russian officials increasingly include explicit references to western regions and to historical borders predating the Second World War.

A Political Scenario or a New Vision of the Borders?

For now, Anton Kobiakov’s statements should be regarded as a political scenario and part of the rhetoric associated with the war, rather than as a decision concerning the future of Ukrainian territories.

However, it remains significant that such scenarios involving the redrawing of borders have been repeatedly promoted by Russian officials and representatives of the country’s political establishment. The evolution of this discourse and the extent to which it is adopted at the official level are developments that warrant close attention.