Russia and China, Between Partnership and Caution: The Stakes of the Power of Siberia-2 Pipeline

On September 3, in Beijing, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced the signing of a “legally binding memorandum” for the Power of Siberia-2 (PoS-2) natural gas pipeline.

While the project could mark an important step in Moscow–Beijing relations, experts at the Atlantic Council urge caution: the Chinese side has not officially confirmed the information.

If Russia and China were to join forces to complete PoS-2, Western capitals might interpret it as a sign of deepening economic, political, and possibly even military cooperation. However, the likelihood of the project moving forward with urgency remains low. Beijing does not share Moscow’s enthusiasm.

At the same time, Gazprom announced the expansion of the Power of Siberia-1 (PoS-1) pipeline and the Far Eastern Route, with an additional 8 bcm/year capacity. While more modest, these volumes could complement existing Russian gas exports to China, both directly via pipelines and LNG, as well as indirectly through Central Asia.

For Russia, PoS-2 represents not only an energy project but also a potential lifeline for its postwar economy. The planned 50 bcm/year flows could reshape global gas markets, challenge LNG exporters – particularly the United States – and bind Moscow and Beijing in a 30-year economic commitment.

China, however, remains hesitant. With growing investments in heat pumps, battery technologies, and electrification, Beijing’s long-term dependence on Russian gas appears limited. Financing also poses a major obstacle: unlike PoS-1, which was already difficult to fund, PoS-2 would require far greater resources, with little incentive for China to accept less favorable terms.

Analysts conclude that PoS-2 faces significant economic, financial, and political challenges. The announcement may reflect Gazprom’s growing desperation more than a real breakthrough. Nevertheless, even smaller projects – such as the recent 8 bcm/year expansions – may cumulatively secure Russia’s energy exports to China and influence global energy dynamics.