Strong Fundamentals and Countercyclical Policies: China Strengthens Its Position Amid Global Uncertainties

China’s economic performance remained steady in April despite external headwinds brought by new tariffs imposed by the United States, according to data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

Industrial output rose by 6.1% year-on-year after a 7.7% increase in March, outperforming the 5.5% forecast from a Reuters poll.

Countercyclical Policies and Manufacturing Competitiveness

Analysts and officials stated that China’s economic fundamentals remain solid and that the country retains sufficient policy space and tools to cope with growing external uncertainties. Measures already implemented include fiscal incentives, strategic investments, and support policies targeting key sectors.

Louise Loo, lead economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said that “April activity data show continued resilience in industrial production.” She explained that China’s manufacturing competitiveness, coupled with frontloaded overseas orders, may sustain production until the end of the temporary 90-day tariff truce between China and the United States.

Government Support and Equipment Renewal Investment

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, emphasized that China’s economic resilience in April was largely due to the firm implementation of countercyclical policy measures. These include large-scale industrial equipment renewal programs, trade-in schemes for consumer goods, and support for major national strategies.

According to NBS, retail sales rose 5.1% year-on-year in April, while fixed-asset investment grew by 4% during the January–April period.

New Stimulus Measures and Favorable Outlook

While Wang cautioned that U.S. tariffs could further weigh on industrial output and weaken confidence in consumption and investment, he remained optimistic about the Chinese economy’s resilience and continued growth. He pointed to the newly introduced financial stimulus package, which includes interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, and targeted funding for consumption and tech innovation.

Fu Linghui, NBS spokesperson, stated that synchronized macroeconomic policies and proactive measures have “bolstered China’s confidence and capacity to meet various risks and challenges.”

Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, said further incremental policy moves are likely, such as additional issuance of treasury bonds and local government special bonds, expansion of equipment renewal programs, vigorous promotion of service consumption, and acceleration of urban renewal projects.