Ukraine | Agricultural exports remain below potential amid logistical bottlenecks and pressure on storage capacity

Ukraine’s Agricultural Exports Remain Below Potential

In the first half of August, Ukraine exported approximately 794,000 tonnes of agricultural products, a volume representing only around 30% of its potential export capacity. According to Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, the main cause is the limited operation of maritime ports.

Alternative Logistics Drive Up Costs

Restrictions on maritime transport are forcing farmers and exporters to use alternative routes. However, transportation through Danube ports, by rail and by road involves additional costs, which have increased by at least $50 per tonne of transported goods.

Currently, approximately 40–45% of agricultural exports are carried out through Danube ports and by rail, while road transport accounts for approximately 7% of the total volume.

2026 Agricultural Production Puts Pressure on Exports

For 2026, Ukraine expects to produce approximately 80 million tonnes of grain and oilseed crops, of which nearly 60 million tonnes are expected to be destined for foreign markets.

At the current pace of shipments, only approximately 1.7 million tonnes could be exported in August. Without a return to normal operations at the ports in the Greater Odesa area, maximum export capacity is estimated at only 2–2.5 million tonnes per month.

Risk of a Major Storage Capacity Shortfall

The slowdown in exports is placing increasing pressure on grain storage infrastructure. By November, the storage capacity shortfall could reach 8–11 million tonnes, posing a significant challenge to Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

To ease pressure on silos and other storage facilities, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food is temporarily using specialized grain storage bags.

Financing for the Autumn Sowing Campaign

At the same time, the authorities are preparing financial conditions for the autumn sowing campaign, which is expected to cover approximately 7 million hectares.

Under the “Affordable Loans 5-7-9%” program, farmers can access financing of up to UAH 90 million, at an annual interest rate of 10%. The facility is available until March 31, 2027, and is intended to provide farmers with the working capital required for agricultural activities.

Greater Access to Financing Secured by Agricultural Products

To further facilitate farmers’ access to financing, the authorities have increased from 0.4 to 0.75 the coefficient used to attract loans secured by agricultural products.

The new measure allows agricultural producers to obtain nearly twice as much financing secured by grain, providing the agricultural sector with an additional source of liquidity amid logistical and storage pressures.