WTO raises its forecast for global trade growth in 2025, but warns of a major slowdown in 2026

The World Trade Organization has announced an upward revision of its estimates for global trade growth in 2025 but warned that the outlook for 2026 has deteriorated significantly, according to CNBC. In its new report, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, the WTO forecasts a 2.4% increase in global trade volume for 2025, well above the previous estimate of 0.9% released in August. In contrast, for 2026, the organization lowered its projection from 1.8% to just 0.5%.

According to News.ro, the WTO stated that global trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the world economy cools and the full impact of tariff increases is felt throughout the year. Trade tariffs have become a significant obstacle for international exchanges following the introduction, in April, of new customs duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Even close U.S. allies such as the United Kingdom continue to be affected by a baseline 10% tariff on exports to the American market.

WTO data show that global trade volumes rose by 4.9% in the first half of 2025, driven by accelerated U.S. imports ahead of higher tariffs, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and growing demand for artificial intelligence–related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment.

AI-related investments accounted for nearly half of the global trade expansion during the first half of the year, with spending up 20% compared to the same period in 2024. Asia was the main engine of this growth, contributing nearly two-thirds of the AI-related trade increase, while the United States accounted for roughly one-fifth.

The report notes that trade growth has spread across the entire digital value chain—from raw silicon and specialty gases to the devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications. However, the WTO warns that the expansion of restrictive measures and uncertainty surrounding trade policies pose major risks for the future. In a positive scenario, maintaining growth momentum in AI-related goods and services could provide a medium-term boost.

Service exports are projected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, despite not being directly affected by tariffs.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the resilience of global trade in 2025 is largely due to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system but cautioned that “this is no time for complacency.” She added that current disruptions in the global trading system are a wake-up call for governments to rethink international trade rules and work together to build a stronger foundation for global prosperity.